links for 2009-11-19

• The Psychology of Climate Change Communication
  "Welcome to the online home of the CRED Guide: The Psychology of Climate Change Communication, published by the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions at Columbia University. The guide is available in its entirety on this site, by clicking through the contents menu at left. You can also download a PDF of the guide or request a paper copy, below."
  (tags: psychology communication environment science climate politics)
• Berkhout, Hertin and Jourdan, "Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning machines’," Global Environmental Change Volume 12, Issue 2, July 2002, Pages 83-95
  Climate impact assessment needs to take account of two interrelated processes: socio-economic change and climate change. To date, future change in socio-economic systems has not been sufficiently integrated with an analysis of climate change impacts. Participative and synthetic scenario approaches offer a means for dealing with critical issues of indeterminacy, innovation, reflexivity and framing in analysing change in socio-economic systems, paving the way for a coherent way of handling of socio-economic futures in impact assessment. We argue that scenarios represent heuristic tools that encourage social learning in climate impact assessment. The advantages and disadvantages of a scenario-based approach are explored using examples from regional climate impact assessment in the UK.
  (tags: scenarios methodology environment climate STS learning GPPAG)
• Shearer A W, 2005, "Approaching scenario-based studies: three perceptions about the future and considerations for landscape planning," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 32(1) 67-87.
  Scenario-based investigations of possible futures have been used since the middle of the 20th century to help decisionmakers cope with alternative courses of action and elements of uncertainty. Since the early 1970s, they have been increasingly used for landscape planning. Each scenario-based study is founded on assumptions of possible change. Often these beliefs are only implicit among scenario creators and scenario users. I discuss the beliefs and perceptions about the future of scenario creators and scenario users, and argue that they should be explicitly addressed before an investigation is undertaken in order to avoid methodological biases in the creation of the scenarios and misunderstanding of the results. As part of this discussion, the basic features of a scenario-based study are reviewed, and applications to landscape and environmental planning are considered, with examples drawn from two studies.
  (tags: scenarios design planning GPPAG landscape)
• Peter J. Dortmans and Eleanor Eiffe, "An examination of future scenarios using historical analogy," Futures 36:10 (December 2004), 1049-1062.
  The quality of scenario planning activities can be difficult to assess, as one cannot know how likely any projected scenario is. Here, we introduce one approach for gaining greater confidence. Historical analogy provides the means for achieving this, whereby the model upon which scenarios are constructed is analysed in terms of how well it predicts and establishes links with recent historical environments. We apply this approach to a previously developed scenario tree, constructed using the field anomaly relaxation method, as a case study to indicate how historical analogy can be used to assess and enhance the model from which the scenarios are constructed.
  (tags: future scenarios methodology history)
• Borjeson et al, "Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide," Futures 38:7 (September 2006), 723-739.
  Various scenario typologies have been suggested in attempts to make the field of futures studies easier to overview. Our typology is based on the scenario user's need to know what will happen, what can happen, and/or how a predefined target can be achieved. We discuss the applicability of various generating, integrating and consistency techniques for developing scenarios that provide the required knowledge. The paper is intended as a step towards a guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used.
  (tags: scenarios methodology GPPAG future)